Explanations and Theories of Historical Sociology: A Reconstruction of “Success Stories”

Abstract

In article the approach to integration of heterogeneous methods for historical-sociological researches is stated. Explication of such cognitive processes is required for the construction and functioning of knowledge bases in advanced intelligent systems that integrate not only the hardware, interface, expert evaluations, decision-making, but also research teams. Main ideas of classical and modern methodology of science are taken as the basis. In the study of private phenomena, along with subject-relevant methods of obtaining and processing data, abduction as “inference to the best explanation” through a systematic comparison with alternative explanations according to given criteria. The movement at high levels of abstraction includes posing general questions regarding the structural elements and main processes in the subject area under study (“question logic” according to R. Collingwood), taking into account previously grounded principles and laws in the chosen research program (I. Lakatos), constructing conceptual constructions as heuristic means of understanding and explaining (St. Toulmin). In the need for more reliable knowledge depending on the nature of the available data different methods are used, among which qualitative comparative analysis (C. Ragin et al.) and hypothetico-deductive scheme of explanation (K. Hempel) in an extended version are indicated as promising for the polar types of cognitive situations. It is shown that in two striking “success stories” — research programs to identify the causes of state origin (R. Carneiro) and the mechanisms of geopolitical dynamics, state collapses (R. Collins) — common logic and the main stages of integrative explanatory approach are found.